Future Emissions Projections: North America Across All Sectors

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In addition the IPCC SRES, the U.S. Global Change Research Program publishes emissions projections for North America. The scenarios are developed using integrated assessment models (IAMs) that integrate socioeconomic and technological forces with models of the natural science of Earth system response. Three IAMs used in Global Change Research Program’s 2007 study were: the Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change, the Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects (MERGE) of Stanford University, and the MiniCAM Model of the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland.

Each scenario included a reference scenario that assumed the introduction of no new energy or environmental policies. Each scenario also included four scenarios that represented different themes and variations of policy implementation.

Each of the reference scenarios projected the three to four-fold increases in total primary energy consumption by 2100. Global CO2 emissions are approximately three times current levels under these scenarios. In the stringent policy scenarios, GHG emissions peak and decline during the 21st century. Under the less stringent policy scenarios, emissions peak in the latter half of the century, and are 1.5% to 2.5% below current levels in 2100.