Future Emissions Projections: Asia Across All Sectors

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A variety of sources exist independent of the IPCC SRES that project GHG emissions in Asia. Three emissions scenarios for Asia, for example, were developed for the years 2010 and 2020 (Zhou et al. 2003). All three scenarios feature roughly equal socioeconomic indices, and the population (1.45 billion) is approximately equal to that estimated by the IPCC B2 scenario. The first scenario is titled the ‘Policy Fail Case’ (PFC), and the second is titled the ‘Reference scenario’ (REF). The third is titled the ‘Policy Succeed Case’ (PSC). The PFC is scenario characterized by high emission rates caused by the continuation and escalation of the current energy structure. The REF is a sustainable scenario that features moderate emission growth and the introduction of energy conservation technologies. The PSC is characterized by low emission rates caused by the successful implementation of strong energy and environmental policies. The scenarios – PFC, REF, and PSC – closely resemble the B1, B2, and A2 scenario of the IPCC SRES. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are projected to increase 39% (PSC), 63% (REF), and 77% (PFC) during the period 2000 to 2020. Increases are mainly due to increases in coal combustion in power plants and the industrial sector in China. Total emissions for SO2, NOx, and other GHGs were projected to increase by 22% (PSC), 44% (REF), and 99% (PFC) from 2000 levels. Total emissions in Asia are strongly influenced by emission scenarios for China.