Long term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets

TitleLong term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2007
AuthorsWeaver, AJ, Zickfeld K, Montenegro A, Eby M
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume34
Issue19
Pagination4
Date PublishedOct
ISBN Number0094-8276
KeywordsMODEL
Abstract

A coupled atmosphere-ocean-carbon cycle model is used to examine the long term climate implications of various 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. All emission targets considered with less than 60% global reduction by 2050 break the 2.0 degrees C threshold warming this century, a number that some have argued represents an upper bound on manageable climate warming. Even when emissions are stabilized at 90% below present levels at 2050, this 2.0 degrees C threshold is eventually broken. Our results suggest that if a 2.0 degrees C warming is to be avoided, direct CO2 capture from the air, together with subsequent sequestration, would eventually have to be introduced in addition to sustained 90% global carbon emissions reductions by 2050.

DOI10.1029/2007gl031018